Trump's legal woes grow but polls show him maintaining his lead

Former President J. Trump (R) is facing the first of what could be as many as four criminal trials alleging all sorts of misconduct from 2015 to 2021. Democrats and their allies within the legal system hope that these show trials will expose Trump as having bad character and poor judgement thus torpedoing his chances of returning to the Whitehouse next year. The polling however shows that this two-pronged strategy of attacking Trump personally using the court system while piling on Republicans for allegedly limiting access too abortion is a strategy that to this point has not worked.

According to the Real Clear Politics polling average just 39.5% of Americans approve of Biden's job performance; while 56.6% say that that they disapprove. President Donald J. Trump leads President Joseph R. Biden 46.1% to 44.9% in the polling average. This after three months of wall to wall reporting on every allegation and leaked scrap of information.

Of course, the U.S. does not elect Presidents on the popular vote. Trump beat Biden by 25.7 points in Alabama in 2020 and Hillary Clinton by 28.3 percentage points in 2016. Both parties know that this state is safely in the Trump camp and no resources will be expended here.

Only about ten states are realistically in play in any given modern election and this election will likely focus on just six. The Electoral College and its winner take all counting of the delegates for each state is how American elections work.

Trump leads Biden in the polling averages by 6.2 points in Nevada, 5.2 percentage points in Arizona, 4.6 in Georgia, 2.0 in Pennsylvania, 0.8 in Michigan, 0.6 in Wisconsin. These were all states won by Biden in 2020. The Biden campaign is clinging to hope that North Carolina, a swing state won by Trump in 2020, will switch to Biden this fall; but Trump is leading Biden there by 5.6 points.

If we widen the map, Trump potentially could put New Hampshire, Minnesota, Maine, and/or Virginia in play, but has a path to victory without any of them.

Real Clear Politics currently has the race 312 for Trump to 226 for Biden – with all of those four going to Biden.

Biden's lead in Minnesota is down to just 2.3 points. He beat Trump by 7.2 points there in 2020, but this is not 2020. He has an 8.0 lead in New Hampshire and a 4.3 point lead in Virginia. Trump had a 6.0 point lead the last time a scientific poll was done in Maine back in February, but that is being discounted as an outlier by pollsters and both parties seem to be ignoring the state and it's 4 electoral votes for now.

Biden on the other hand could put resources into Ohio, Texas, Iowa, and/or Florida; but those seem like long shots and any money, time, and volunteers put there could prove costly in the real swing states.

Trump has a 9.0 point lead in Florida, a 9.3 point lead in Texas, a 10.0 lead in Ohio, and an 11.5 point lead in Iowa.

The Biden campaign has staked a lot on maximizing upon Trump's unfavourability ratings for the president to win his second term. If this trial does not help them in the polling, they may need to consider a change in strategy after the Fourth of July – when Americans begin focusing on the campaigns and the coming election.

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