Sun Belt Showdown: Troy Hosts South Alabama in a Battle for In-State Bragging Rights

October 4, 2025 - TROY, Ala. - The stakes are high and the tension is real as the Troy Trojans (2–2) welcome the South Alabama Jaguars (1–4) to Veterans Memorial Stadium today for a pivotal Sun Belt Conference clash. Kickoff is set for 6:00 p.m. CT, and the game will be streamed live on ESPN+.

While neither team enters with a dominant record, this matchup carries weight far beyond the standings. It's a battle for in-state pride, recruiting momentum, and a chance to reset the season's trajectory.

Recent Form and Motivation

Troy comes into the game riding a wave of confidence after a hard-fought 21–17 win over Buffalo, where quarterback Tucker Kilcrease threw for 148 yards and added a rushing touchdown. Running back Tae Meadows chipped in 68 yards and a score, while wideout Rara Thomas hauled in five catches for 78 yards and a touchdown.

South Alabama, meanwhile, is looking to rebound from a 36–22 loss to North Texas, where quarterback Bishop Davenport showed flashes of brilliance with 195 passing yards, 59 rushing yards, and two total touchdowns. Running back PJ Martin added 60 yards on the ground and 42 receiving yards, while Devin Voisin led all receivers with 97 yards on five catches.

Statistical Breakdown

South Alabama averages 25.2 points per game, compared to Troy's 20.5, but the Jaguars also allow 31.8 points per game, ranking 121st nationally in scoring defense. Troy's defense has been more reliable, surrendering just 23 points per game, good for 50th nationally.

Offensively, South Alabama is more balanced, averaging 382.8 total yards per game, including 190 rushing yards-ranking 42nd in the FBS. Troy's offense has struggled, producing just 298.5 yards per game, with a modest 138.3 rushing average.

Defensively, South Alabama's secondary is a strength, allowing just 162.4 passing yards per game (21st nationally). But their run defense has been porous, giving up 198.8 rushing yards per game (125th nationally). Troy's defense is more balanced, allowing 318.3 total yards per game, with solid marks against both the run and pass.

Matchup Dynamics

• Quarterback Play: Davenport's dual-threat ability gives South Alabama a dynamic edge, but Kilcrease's efficiency and poise have kept Troy competitive.

• Third Down Efficiency: Troy converts 43.8% of third downs (48th nationally), while South Alabama allows conversions on 44.8%-ranking 117th.

• Red Zone Defense: Both teams rank near the bottom nationally, allowing opponents to score on 100% of red zone trips. Expect fireworks once either team crosses the 20-yard line.

Rivalry and History

Troy holds a 3–1 record against South Alabama over their last four meetings, outscoring the Jaguars 78–65 in that span. The Trojans have also covered the spread in three of those matchups, and today's game is expected to be another tight contest.

Prediction and Outlook

Oddsmakers project a close game, with South Alabama listed as a 1.5-point favorite and an over/under of 47.5 points. The implied score is Jaguars 24, Trojans 23, and betting models give South Alabama a 53% chance to win.

Expect a physical, emotional contest with momentum swings and big plays. If Troy's defense can contain Davenport and force third-and-long situations, the Trojans could grind out a win. But if South Alabama's run game gets rolling and Voisin finds space downfield, the Jaguars may finally break through.

Final Thought

This isn't just a Sun Belt game-it's a litmus test for two programs trying to define their identity in 2025. For fans across Alabama, it's a chance to rally behind their hometown heroes and witness a rivalry that continues to grow in intensity and impact.