Venezuela braces for potential U.S. military action with guerrilla defense strategy and mass mobilization

November 12, 2025 - As tensions escalate between Venezuela and the United States, President Nicolás Maduro's government is preparing for what it views as an imminent military threat. With the arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford-the world's largest aircraft carrier-and thousands of U.S. personnel in the Caribbean, Venezuela has activated a sweeping defense plan that includes guerrilla warfare, mass mobilization, and civilian training. The situation marks a dramatic shift in hemispheric relations and raises concerns about a broader conflict in Latin America.

A Caribbean buildup and rising rhetoric

The current crisis stems from a months-long U.S. military buildup in the region, framed by the Trump administration as part of a campaign against "narcoterrorists" allegedly supported by the Venezuelan government. Since September, U.S. forces have launched airstrikes on vessels near Venezuelan waters, claiming they were linked to drug cartels such as Tren de Aragua. More than 75 people have reportedly died in these operations.

President Donald Trump has denied seeking regime change but has repeatedly called Maduro an illegitimate leader and authorized covert CIA missions inside Venezuela. In October, Trump told reporters, "We are certainly looking at land now, because we've got the sea very well under control," signaling a possible shift toward ground operations.

Venezuela's "Independence Plan 200"

In response, Venezuela has enacted "Independence Plan 200," a comprehensive military readiness initiative. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López announced the deployment of all land, air, riverine, and missile assets, along with militias and police forces. "The aggression will be responded to with national unity," López said. "We are ready here, we don't want war".

The plan includes the activation of "integral defense commands" across the country, designed to unify military and civilian forces. Maduro has claimed that 8 million civilians are training in militias, although independent estimates suggest only a few thousand may be actively involved.

Guerrilla warfare and "anarchization"

Facing a vastly superior U.S. military, Venezuela has adopted a two-pronged defense strategy: "prolonged resistance" and "anarchization." The first involves deploying small military units across more than 280 locations to conduct sabotage and hit-and-run attacks. These units are expected to rely on outdated Russian-made equipment, including Sukhoi fighter jets, tanks, and Igla-S shoulder-fired missiles.

The second strategy, "anarchization," aims to make Caracas ungovernable for any invading force. Intelligence operatives and armed pro-government groups would sow chaos in the capital, disrupting logistics and communications. According to sources close to the government, the goal is to "make Venezuela ungovernable for foreign forces".

This approach reflects a tacit acknowledgment of Venezuela's weakened conventional military capabilities. Chronic shortages of personnel, training, and equipment have left the armed forces ill-prepared for direct confrontation. "We wouldn't last two hours in a conventional war," one insider told Reuters.

Civilian involvement and national morale

To bolster its defense, Venezuela has begun training civilians in basic military tactics. State television has aired footage of militia members teaching citizens how to operate weapons, and local commanders have reportedly negotiated with food producers to supply troops amid chronic shortages.

Maduro has used the threat of U.S. intervention to rally nationalistic support, portraying the conflict as a fight against imperialism. "They promised they would never again get involved in a war and they are fabricating a war that we will avoid," he said in a recent broadcast.

However, the country remains deeply divided. Following a contested 2024 election marred by allegations of fraud and crackdowns on protesters, Maduro faces growing domestic discontent and diplomatic isolation. While some opposition figures acknowledge the existence of defense plans, they question their effectiveness and warn of potential humanitarian consequences.

Regional implications and global concerns

The deployment of U.S. forces to nearby countries-including Puerto Rico, Panama, El Salvador, and Trinidad and Tobago-has further heightened regional anxiety. While the Trump administration insists the operations are aimed at disrupting drug trafficking, critics argue they risk destabilizing Latin America and provoking a broader conflict.

International observers have expressed concern about the legality and transparency of the U.S. strikes, noting that no evidence has been released to confirm the vessels targeted were involved in narcotics smuggling. Human rights organizations have called for restraint and dialogue, warning that escalation could lead to mass displacement and civilian casualties.

Conclusion

Venezuela's preparations for a possible U.S. attack reflect both desperation and defiance. With limited military resources and mounting internal challenges, Maduro's government is betting on asymmetric warfare and national mobilization to deter foreign intervention. As the Caribbean becomes a flashpoint for geopolitical confrontation, the stakes are high-not just for Venezuela, but for the entire region.

Whether the crisis will culminate in open conflict or be resolved through diplomacy remains uncertain. But one thing is clear: Venezuela is bracing for a fight, and the world is watching.